Lucas: Doing Numbers

By Adam Lucas

Stats aren't everything. They can be deceptive and they don't tell the whole story.

But over the last five games, these Carolina basketball numbers look very, very good.

Part of the equation is the competition. Everyone understands that. Saturday's victim, Miami, is now 6-23. But in thumping the Hurricanes, 92-73, the Tar Heels showed off some of the same traits that have propelled them to a five-game winning streak.

They're shooting much better. That's both from inside and outside. The inside muscle on Saturday was provided by Ven-Allen Lubin, who shot a healthy 9-for-10 and is now hitting 70.6 percent of his shots from the field this season. How good is that? Lubin likely won't be eligible for the UNC single-season mark because it requires four made field goals per game, but that record is "just" 64.6 percent (Brandan Wright).

From the perimeter, Carolina continues to shoot much more effectively; the Tar Heels were 10-for-18 from three and has now hit 50 out of 108 three-point attempts in the last five games. The Heels came into the day shooting just 34 percent from three…but are making nearly half over the last two weeks.

In addition to doing it from the field, Carolina is also succeeding at the line. During the guard-heavy portion of the season, the Heels saw opponents attempt more free throws in four straight games and five out of six. But after going 16-for-24 on Saturday (Miami was 6-for-7) Carolina has now attempted more free throws than the opponents in five straight games.

Add up all those made shots and you have a team that is averaging 90.8 points per game over the last five contests. Amazingly, this is the same squad that failed to score more than 75 in nine of the 12 games prior to this stretch.

So is all this offense a hot streak or is it, as Hubert Davis likes to say, "sustainable"?

"We're taking good shots and taking care of the ball," Lubin said on the Tar Heel Sports Network after the win. "We were struggling taking care of the ball and finding the right shots. We've been more intentional about what we're doing."

That intent is also paying dividends on the glass—and is also creating some of the offense. Think of all the very good rebounding teams Carolina has had in the past. Coming into Saturday's game, it was this year's team—which probably has yet to earn the "very good" designation—that was one of just three UNC teams since at least 1960 to outrebound three straight Atlantic Coast Conference opponents by 14 or more in three straight games.

They fell just short of that mark on Saturday, as the rebounding edge was 38-26. But look a little deeper and it was still an impressive performance. The Tar Heels missed just 23 shots and grabbed ten offensive rebounds. That hustle led to 18 second chance points.

How unexpected is this surge? Through the first 26 games of the season, Carolina had more than 15 second chance points just twice and averaged only ten per game. In the last four games, they've now posted second chance point results of 21, 17, 24 and 18, an average of exactly 20 per game.

Lubin and Drake Powell each had a pair on Saturday; Powell has at least two offensive rebounds in four of the last six games after getting at least two only twice in the first 24 games of his Carolina career. It turns out that getting offensive boards is a little easier when you're trying to elude small forwards instead of power forwards.

The Tar Heels—a team with a season-long offensive rebound percentage below 30 percent—have recorded offensive rebound percentages of at least 38 percent in four straight games. That stretch of course correlates with Jae'Lyn Withers' expanded role, but it's not just Withers. Lubin, Powell, and even Seth Trimble have been impactful on the offensive glass. But those are just stats. Wondering what it means in real life?

Let's take three of the most frustrating losses on the UNC resume' right now. Carolina's offensive rebound percentage against those teams looks like this:

Wake Forest: 20.5 percent (a one-point loss).

Stanford: 16.7 percent (a one-point loss).

Michigan State: 14.7 percent (a three-point overtime loss).

Do you think, just maybe, that a little more productivity on the offensive glass against any of those teams might have changed the outcome…and therefore the storyline of Carolina's season?

"It's something that gives us more opportunities at the rim," Lubin said. "That's something Coach emphasizes and it can help me be more impactful for the team."

Now the challenge is to continue to turn those statistics into wins over the remainder of the regular season and in Charlotte for the ACC Tournament.

"There's a week left in the regular season," Hubert Davis told Jones Angell on the Tar Heel Sports Network. "And we're continuing to improve and getting better."

Players Mentioned

Ven-Allen Lubin

Drake Powell

Seth Trimble

Jae'Lyn Withers

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